More homes for sale.
Fewer buyers signing.
Prices flat.
The Valley market index fell to 72.2, from 79.4 a month ago. Below 85, buyers hold the edge. Listings climbed 8.8% in one month while sales slipped, and the median price has not moved in a year. This is a buyer's market. It is not a crash.
Six numbers that explain the month
All areas and property types across Greater Phoenix, as of 14 October 2026. Year-over-year comparisons are against 14 October 2025.
The story is the gap between supply and signed contracts. Listings rose, contracts fell, and the index dropped with them. Homes that did sell closed at 97.23% of list price on average, after 84 days on the market against 85 a year ago. Priced right, a home still sells. Priced wrong, it joins the third that did not.
Get my monthly market report
The Valley is not one market. Once a month I email this local report in plain English: what moved, what is sitting, and what it means if you are buying, selling or holding. Pick the area you care about most and I will point out what matters there.
Three different markets, depending on where you stand
If you are selling
Buyers are choosing among 26,905 listings and can walk away from yours. Your price has to be right on day one. Ask your agent for the closest sales from the last 90 days and list inside them. If a buyer needs help, offer a seller credit at closing. Their lender applies it to closing costs or a lower rate. That usually costs you less than a second price cut.
If you are buying
At 4.9 months of supply you have time to look, inspect and ask. Read days on market before you write. A seller 60 days in negotiates differently than one 10 days in. Ask for a seller credit toward your closing costs, or a rate buydown, where the seller pays to lower your mortgage rate. Ask for repairs found at inspection. In a buyer's market, those asks are normal.
If you are holding
The median sale price is $450,000, the same as a year ago. A flat year with rising supply pushes owners toward two mistakes: selling early into a buyer's market, or borrowing against equity that is not growing. Neither is required. If your payment is comfortable and your plan runs ten years, nothing here asks you to act. Keep the home in good condition and keep cash set aside for repairs. If you rent it out, check your rent against current listings before the lease renews. A vacant month costs more than a modest rent cut.
The Valley is not one market
Cromford Market Index by city, single-family detached, as of 14 October 2026. Above 100 favors sellers, 85 to 100 is balanced, below 85 favors buyers. Median price is this month's median sale price. City pages show the median over the last 12 months, so the two figures differ. Phoenix first, then the East Valley and north, then the West Valley.
| City | Market index | Median, this month | Months supply | Reads as |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avondale | 98.9 | $410,000 | 4.9 | Balanced |
| Buckeye | 48.6 | $395,990 | 4.7 | Buyer |
| Cave Creek | 112.2 | $930,000 | 5.4 | Seller |
| Chandler | 118.1 | $540,000 | 3.1 | Seller |
| Fountain Hills | 116.8 | $800,000 | 6.3 | Seller |
| Gilbert | 96.9 | $595,500 | 3.3 | Balanced |
| Glendale | 94.6 | $406,000 | 3.5 | Balanced |
| Goodyear | 69.5 | $485,495 | 4.6 | Buyer |
| Litchfield Park | 60.4 | $539,995 | 5.8 | Buyer |
| Mesa | 96.2 | $490,000 | 3.4 | Balanced |
| Paradise Valley | 127.9 | $4,342,500 | 7.1 | Seller |
| Peoria | 76.8 | $516,500 | 4.6 | Buyer |
| Phoenix | 99.8 | $486,500 | 3.9 | Balanced |
| Queen Creek | 46.0 | $724,934 | 5.3 | Buyer |
| Scottsdale | 144.8 | $1,275,000 | 3.9 | Seller |
| Surprise | 60.4 | $438,695 | 5.2 | Buyer |
| Tempe | 65.2 | $548,000 | 4.9 | Buyer |
Market index by city
Each bar is the city's market index from the table above. 100 is even. Below 85, buyers have the leverage.
Data: The Cromford Report. Chart: Doug Palmer.
Scottsdale at 144.8 and Queen Creek at 46.0 sit in the same metro. Paradise Valley and Fountain Hills sell fewer than 30 homes a month, so their index swings hard from month to month.
What I am watching
- Homes under contract, down 12.8% from a year ago 6,460 homes are under contract against 7,407 a year ago. Today's contracts are next month's sales. If this number keeps falling into November, the index falls with it.
- Phoenix itself, now at 99.8 The city of Phoenix read 112.7 last month and sits at the top of balanced today. Scottsdale at 144.8 and Chandler at 118.1 still favor sellers. Whether Phoenix holds above 85 decides how the core of the Valley trades this winter.
- The listing success rate, 66.8% It edged up from 66.2% last month. Two years ago it was 72.5%. If it holds or rises through the holidays, sellers are pricing to the market. If it slips, they are not.
Your street is not the Valley
These numbers describe 26,905 homes for sale. Yours is one of them, and the only figure that matters to you is what a buyer will pay for your block, in your price band, this month.
Source: The Cromford Report, a paid, member-only Greater Phoenix market data service, and ARMLS. All areas and types as of 14 October 2026. City figures are single-family detached as of 14 October 2026. Published monthly. Nothing here is a guarantee of price or timing, and no past edition is edited after publication.
- October 2026 · current edition
- September 2026
- National: the monthly U.S. edition
Follow my Phoenix market reports on Google. Add DougSellsPHX as a preferred source and my updates show up higher when you search.
+ Add DougSellsPHX on Google