September 2026 · Greater Phoenix

One in three listings
came off the market
without selling.

Prices did not move. Supply did. This is not a correction, it is a market that has stopped rewarding the wrong price, and most of the pain this year has landed on sellers who tested it.

What changed

Six numbers that explain the month

All areas and property types across Greater Phoenix, as of 15 September 2026. Year-over-year comparisons are against the same date in 2025.

Listing success rate
65.0%
Down from 68.1% a year ago and 73.8% two years ago. The other 35% expired, cancelled or withdrew.
Active listings
24,637
Up 2.2% year over year. More competition for the same buyer.
Sales per month
5,288
Down about 11% from 5,948 last September. Fewer closings, not fewer listings.
Months of supply
4.7
Up from 4.1 a year ago and 3.7 last month. Balanced sits near 4.
Median sale price
$449,998
Against $446,650 a year ago. Across the full twelve months the median has not moved at all.
Close to list price
97.51%
Median days on market 63, against 65 last year. Correctly priced homes still move.

The story is not price. It is participation. Supply is up, sales are down, and the gap between those two lines is the 35% of sellers who listed and never closed. Their homes are still theirs.

What it means for you

Three different markets, depending on where you stand

If you are selling

Your first three weeks decide the outcome. The market will not rescue a listing that opens high, and two price reductions cost more than one correct number at launch. One in three sellers found that out the hard way this year. Price it where the data says, not where hope says.

If you are buying

That same 35% is your leverage. A seller sitting sixty days negotiates very differently than one sitting ten, and at 4.7 months of supply you have something you did not have in 2021, which is time. Days on market is now a number worth reading before you write.

If you are holding

Nothing here asks you to act. The annual median is flat at $450,000 and appreciation is 0.0% year over year, so this is a year that neither rewards nor punishes patience. If your plan was to hold for a decade, a flat twelve months is noise. Do not let a headline shorten your timeline.

By city

The Valley is not one market

Cromford Market Index by city, single-family detached, as of 16 September 2026. Above 100 favors sellers, below 100 favors buyers, and the spread from Phoenix to Buckeye is the widest it has been in years.

CityMarket indexMedian priceMonths supplyReads as
Phoenix111.8$469,9983.9Seller
Avondale109.3$407,5003.7Seller
Glendale107.6$450,0003.3Seller
Peoria88.8$525,0003.6Balanced
Goodyear76.1$474,9904.2Buyer
Surprise70.4$424,3984.5Buyer
Litchfield Park64.4$523,0004.5Buyer
Buckeye51.1$405,0004.5Buyer

Same metro, opposite strategies. A pricing approach that works in Glendale will sit in Buckeye.

Next month

What I am watching

Your street is not the Valley

These numbers describe 24,637 homes. Yours is one of them, and the only figure that matters to you is what a buyer will pay for your block, in your price band, this month.

Text me your address 480-485-4261
September 2026 · Greater Phoenix

One in three listings
came off the market
without selling.

Prices did not move. Supply did. This is not a correction, it is a market that has stopped rewarding the wrong price, and most of the pain this year has landed on sellers who tested it.

What changed

Six numbers that explain the month

All areas and property types across Greater Phoenix, as of 15 September 2026. Year-over-year comparisons are against the same date in 2025.

Listing success rate
65.0%
Down from 68.1% a year ago and 73.8% two years ago. The other 35% expired, cancelled or withdrew.
Active listings
24,637
Up 2.2% year over year. More competition for the same buyer.
Sales per month
5,288
Down about 11% from 5,948 last September. Fewer closings, not fewer listings.
Months of supply
4.7
Up from 4.1 a year ago and 3.7 last month. Balanced sits near 4.
Median sale price
$449,998
Against $446,650 a year ago. Across the full twelve months the median has not moved at all.
Close to list price
97.51%
Median days on market 63, against 65 last year. Correctly priced homes still move.

The story is not price. It is participation. Supply is up, sales are down, and the gap between those two lines is the 35% of sellers who listed and never closed. Their homes are still theirs.

What it means for you

Three different markets, depending on where you stand

If you are selling

Your first three weeks decide the outcome. The market will not rescue a listing that opens high, and two price reductions cost more than one correct number at launch. One in three sellers found that out the hard way this year. Price it where the data says, not where hope says.

If you are buying

That same 35% is your leverage. A seller sitting sixty days negotiates very differently than one sitting ten, and at 4.7 months of supply you have something you did not have in 2021, which is time. Days on market is now a number worth reading before you write.

If you are holding

Nothing here asks you to act. The annual median is flat at $450,000 and appreciation is 0.0% year over year, so this is a year that neither rewards nor punishes patience. If your plan was to hold for a decade, a flat twelve months is noise. Do not let a headline shorten your timeline.

By city

The Valley is not one market

Cromford Market Index by city, single-family detached, as of 16 September 2026. Above 100 favors sellers, below 100 favors buyers, and the spread from Phoenix to Buckeye is the widest it has been in years.

CityMarket indexMedian priceMonths supplyReads as
Phoenix111.8$469,9983.9Seller
Avondale109.3$407,5003.7Seller
Glendale107.6$450,0003.3Seller
Peoria88.8$525,0003.6Balanced
Goodyear76.1$474,9904.2Buyer
Surprise70.4$424,3984.5Buyer
Litchfield Park64.4$523,0004.5Buyer
Buckeye51.1$405,0004.5Buyer

Same metro, opposite strategies. A pricing approach that works in Glendale will sit in Buckeye.

Next month

What I am watching

  • Pre-foreclosures, now 2.2% of active listings A year ago that figure was 1.2%. It is still a small number and it is not 2008, but it is the first indicator that has nearly doubled. If it keeps climbing through the fall it changes the supply picture in 2027.
  • The supply and demand gap Supply sits at 98.1 against demand at 77.7. Supply near normal, demand well below it. Demand is the number that has to move for this market to change direction, and nothing in September suggested it will before spring.
  • Whether sellers adjust at launch or after The listing success rate has fallen 8.8 points in two years. If it stabilizes this winter, sellers have adapted. If it keeps falling, they have not.

Your street is not the Valley

These numbers describe 24,637 homes. Yours is one of them, and the only figure that matters to you is what a buyer will pay for your block, in your price band, this month.

Method and archive

Figures come from a paid, member-only Greater Phoenix market data service and from ARMLS. All areas and types as of 15 September 2026. City figures are single-family detached as of 16 September 2026. Published monthly. Nothing here is a guarantee of price or timing, and no past edition is edited after publication.

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