October 2026 · National

42% of U.S. homes for sale
have cut their price.
Prices are not crashing.

Sellers are catching up to buyers. Price cuts are up seven months in a row, sellers outnumber buyers by the widest gap on record, and the experts still forecast prices rising, just slower.

Doug Palmer, AZ REALTOR® · My Home Group Real Estate · Published 7 October 2026

What changed

Six national numbers, and what they mean

National figures only. For Greater Phoenix, see the local edition.

Listings with a price cut
42%
Up seven months in a row. The market is repricing to what buyers can pay.
Typical price cut
$17,560
Modest cuts, not fire sales.
Sellers vs buyers
+58%
More sellers than buyers, the widest gap on record. Buyers set the pace right now.
Markets favoring buyers
7 in 10
Favor buyers or are trending that way. This is broad, not a few soft cities.
List prices vs last year's peak
-$26,000
Some of this is the usual seasonal dip into winter.
New builds with an incentive
1 in 5
Most often a lower rate. Resale sellers are competing with builders on monthly payment.
The month in charts

Three charts from the national report

Chart: 30-year fixed mortgage rate, weekly, 2020 to 2026. Rates rose from about 3% to a 6% to 7% range in 2022 and have stayed in that range, ending near the top of it.
Rates have held mostly between 6% and 7% since late 2022, peaked near 8% in late 2023, and are back at the top of that range. Source: Freddie Mac, via Keeping Current Matters, October 2026 Monthly Market Report.
Chart: share of outstanding mortgages by interest rate, first quarter 2026. 66.7% are under 5%.
Two in three homeowners have a rate below 5%, which keeps many of them from selling. Source: FHFA, via Keeping Current Matters, October 2026 Monthly Market Report.
Chart: months of new-home supply, August 2025 to August 2026, between about 7.7 and 9.9 months. 4 to 6 months is normal.
New-home supply has stayed well above the 4 to 6 months that is normal, so builders are competing with incentives. Source: Census, via Keeping Current Matters, October 2026 Monthly Market Report.
What it means for you

Is this a crash? No.

Fannie Mae's panel of more than 100 housing experts forecasts prices up 2.5% this year and 14.7% over five years. Even the most pessimistic group expects about 6.6% by 2030. A forecast, not a promise.

If you are selling

Price for today's buyer from day one. Your competition includes builders buying down rates, and a seller can offer the same kind of help.

If you are buying

That 42% is your leverage: price, closing costs, repairs. A home that has sat for weeks negotiates differently.

What about your street?

National numbers are the headline. Phoenix does not always move with the country. The local edition comes out mid-month.

The nation is the headline. Your street is the story.

Text me your address and I will send you the numbers for your street, your price band, this month.

Text me your address 480-485-4261
Method and archive

Source: Keeping Current Matters, citing HousingWire Data, Redfin, Realtor.com, the Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey and Mortgage News Daily. KCM articles of 24 September, 28 September, 30 September and 1 October 2026. Charts: KCM October 2026 Monthly Market Report, shown as published. National figures only. Published monthly. Forecasts are forecasts. Nothing here is a guarantee of price or timing, and no past edition is edited after publication.

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