Pricing your Arizona home.
No number until
I walk the house.
Price decides almost everything that follows: how many buyers see the house, how many offers come and how the appraisal lands. You set the price. I build the evidence from condition, adjusted and time-adjusted comparable sales net of concessions, the active competition and months of supply, then we agree on a 30-day price review before we list.
Three columns, one walkthrough.
Condition moves the price more than any single feature, and it cannot be judged from a desk. Before the walkthrough, my market analysis shows three condition columns: below average, average and above average. After I walk the house with you, we pick the column together.
On the walkthrough I note upgrades and when they were done, anything that needs repair, and the ages of the roof, the HVAC, the water heater and the pool equipment. Those four are what a buyer will price after the inspection, so they shape the number from the start. A price set before anyone walks the house is a guess.
How I build your number.
A comparable sale, or comp, is a nearby home that sold recently. I price houses, not averages. Each comp is adjusted line by line to match your house, and a sale that needs heavy adjustment gets dropped, not stretched.
Sale prices hide credits paid to buyers. A $500,000 sale with a $15,000 credit to the buyer is a $485,000 sale. I pull the real concession on every comp and subtract it before it counts.
- Adjusted for the house.Size, lot, pool, garage, stories, condition and age, each compared with yours.
- Concessions netted out.Any credit the seller paid toward the buyer's costs comes off the sale price.
- Time adjusted.Each comp is moved to today's market from the date it went under contract, using measured local trend data.
- Checked against the competition.Buyers compare your house to what is for sale today, not to last spring's sales. I line up the active listings the same way.
- Priced for closing day.Your house closes 30 to 90 days or more after it goes live. If prices are drifting, the number that matters is the one on closing day.
Months of supply sets the posture.
Months of supply is how long the current inventory would take to sell at today's pace. I read it for your price range and size of home, not just your ZIP code. Larger homes often sit in a slower market than the ZIP as a whole.
From there we choose one of three pricing postures. Most homes, in most markets, belong right at the comps.
A little above the comps
Leaves room to negotiate, but draws fewer showings and risks going stale. It fits rare or upgraded homes when supply is low.
Right at the comps
The clean, defensible number. It appraises well. It fits most homes in most markets.
A little under the comps
Draws more buyers and can start a bidding contest. It fits a seller's market, or a sale where speed matters most.
Why overpricing costs the most.
The first two to three weeks bring the most attention a listing will ever get. A house priced above the market spends that window being compared and skipped. A house that sits collects price cuts and questions, and buyers start asking what is wrong with it.
Overpricing also carries appraisal risk. If a financing buyer's appraisal comes in below the price, the buyer may renegotiate or cancel. I send the appraiser the comps and a list of upgrades before the visit, and a well supported price is the best protection. See how the appraisal fits the contract on Selling in Arizona: costs and timeline.
The 30-day price review.
Time is part of the price. Some homes sell in days. Larger homes and homes in slower segments take months. I tell you the likely timeline up front, and we agree on a review date before we list, so we act on data, not hope.
Thirty days after going live, we sit down with the showing count, the feedback and any new sales or listings. If the market has told us something, we adjust once and decisively. Small, frequent cuts cost more than one right move. To see what a given price nets you, try the seller net calculator.
Why the website number misses.
Online value estimates are built from public records and recent sales. They cannot see condition, upgrades or the concessions hidden inside a sale price, so they can run well above or below the real number. I will show you where your estimate sits against the adjusted comps, and why.
You get a one-page market analysis with the comps, the adjustments and a price band. If you want a real number for your house, send me your address through the home value form. I pull the county record, you confirm it, and I send you a value built from recent nearby sales. The final number waits for the walkthrough.
Common questions
Who sets the listing price?
You do. I give you the evidence, a price band and a recommendation, and you choose.
Why will you not give me a price before you see the house?
Condition moves the price more than any single feature. Before the walkthrough I show three condition columns. After it, we pick the column together.
What does netting out concessions mean?
Subtracting any credit the seller paid toward the buyer's costs. A $500,000 sale with a $15,000 credit counts as a $485,000 sale.
What is months of supply?
How long the current inventory would take to sell at today's pace. Under 5 months favors sellers, 5 to 6 is balanced, over 6 favors buyers.
Why are online home value estimates often wrong?
They cannot see condition, upgrades or concessions, so they can land well above or below what the house will sell for.
What happens at the 30-day price review?
We look at showings, feedback and new sales and listings. If the market has spoken, we adjust once and decisively rather than in small steps.
Questions about pricing your home?
Thinking about selling? Tell me your address and I will build the three condition columns before we walk the house together. Call or text 480-485-4261. If you already have an agent under contract, ask them first.
This page is general information, not legal or tax advice. Sources: the pricing method, condition columns, months of supply bands, pricing postures and 30-day price review are Doug Palmer's own process, from his Listing Consultation Guide; appraisal terms from the Arizona REALTORS Residential Resale Real Estate Purchase Contract (revised November 2025) from Arizona REALTORS: the revision notice and the published form. All checked 28 October 2026.